Techies, Look to Europe

What's the state of the software job market in the US? 

The US job market is no longer bullish. It is gradually slowing down for software programmers. Early indications have come from the fact that we are getting a good flow of resumes from people who are currrently in the US, but are willing to relocate to Europe and India. In the last two months particularly, we have found more and more people who want to come back from the US. This is a new trend and reflects to a good extent the uncertainties of the US market. 

Leading e-commerce consultancies like Scient, Vient, Marchone are also downsizing significantly. I am not talking of pure dotcom plays like e-toys who are closing down, or of Amazon, which is downsizing. The Scients and Vients are leading consultancies who were doing signifcant work in the dotcom arena, like building portals etc. They employed a lot of programmers and many of them are being sent home now.

There are unconfirmed reports that many of our software companies are having large numbers of people on the bench over there. One fact is that the average turnaround time between jobs for contract programmers has increased by over 50%.

And what about Europe, Japan and India?
European companies are still recruiting, but one can sense the overhang due to the US economy slowdown. In general, companies have become more conservative here too, in terms of new employment. But for Indian software professionals, Europe still represents a good opportunity. This is because the market here is still virgin territory for Indian companies, and it is growing. In the last six months, Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary have started welcoming Indian professionals. UK has significantly relaxed visa terms. My estimate is that Europe can absorb around 200,000 software professionals from India every year for the next 2-3 years.

Also, with the US economy slowing down, companies there will recruit from the Indian population already there, not take new people from here. According to one estimate, there are more than 500,000 Indian software professionals in the US. That is a large number to get people from. This is not true of Europe. 
Japan is one country where employment opportunities for Indians are still very high. The problem is of language and food. Many people hesitate to go to Japan for these reasons. Japan can easily absorb 20,000-30,000 Indian software professionals, provided people are willing to go there. To get a job in Japan, the easiest way is to learn Japanese. If you can do that, then even if you are a B.Sc or B.Com graduate with good computer proficiency, you can easily go to Japan.

The Indian market has not been affected so far by the US slowdown. However, I expect that next quarter, there could be a slowdown in hiring. Intake of freshers from campuses could be affected as Indian companies adjust themselves to the slowdown in the US market.

So, is the jobs boom turning to gloom? When will it go bust, if it already hasn't? 
The software industry in India was growing by over 100% till recently. I do not see this happening in the next 2-3 years. Growth rates will come down to more like 40 to 50%. There is no bust. What has happened is that the growth rates are coming down and this is expected, since our base is going up year on year. However, things are not as hunky dory as it was at the same time last year.

Which are the new geographic job markets for Indian professionals? 
Today, the Indian software professional is well recognised and well accepted all around the world. The other day, Canada relaxed its entry specifications and procedures for Indians. A couple of months ago, Germany did something similar. Dubai wants hordes of Indians for its software Internet City, and so do Singapore, Australia, New Zealand. I will share something a friend told me recently. He heads a software company out of Budapest, Hungary, and regularly sends people to Germany on work. According to him, if you have an European passport, you can get a German work permit within a week. If you have an Indian passport, it takes four weeks. If you have a Chinese or Vietnamese passport, it takes 3 months. It shows how much we are in demand around the world.

What are the personnel requirements of the big boys of software in India, US and Europe? 
Today, wireless technologies and connecting any two appliances is the need of the hour. Bluetooth and similar applications are very much in demand. Other marketable or hot skills include Siebel (CRM) and embedded software, etc.
The big Indian software companies like Wipro, Infosys, Satyam are bound to do well in any shakeout. You will have noticed that in hard times, the big ones become bigger. This is what will happen in India too. The software services industry will consolidate. Size will become important. 

More and more US and European companies will offload jobs to India for cost and time advantages. While offloading, these companies prefer to work with large companies. So, there will be mergers between Indian software companies to become bigger entities. There will be closures too. 

What are HR managers looking for today in candidates? 
Flexibility is an important issue for today's software professionals. What I mean is whether he/she can adapt rapidly to new technologies or new skills. HR managers in big companies are using various tests of aptitude and IQ to determine your flexibility. It is not enough if you are good in the skill areas you are working on, these tests help in determining whether you can adapt yourself to new skills. 

For example, one of our US clients—AMDOCS—needs over 1,000 people from India in the next 10 months. However, their requirements are quite stringent. They have a 4-hour test that the candidate has to write. This test has two broad areas—(a) on the skills which they are currently looking for and (b) aptitude and IQ. While their skills requirements are not difficult to meet (they need only Oracle people, no great shakes today), we find that most of the software people— almost 70% of those who pass test (a)—fail on test (b). Believe me, as time passes by, more and more companies are bound to test you not only on your knowledge base, but also on other areas.
Besides the technical skills, aptitude etc., one important factor which any HR manager looks for is your 'communication skills' and your 'appearance.' With the market becoming more and more competitive, these soft skills are bound to be the differentiators between success and failure in an interview.

What are you expecting for the next five years? 
India is the acknowledged leader in software services and will continue to be so for the next 5-10 years. However, we have to watch out for the Chinese. Already its Internet pentetration and PC population is significantly more than that of India's.

Their only disadvantage is that they don't know English. However, this is changing. The Chinese government is fully aware of the software revolution. Two months ago, they had a top-level meeting in Beijing on this issue. 
The Chinese premier sat through the entire 8-hour meeting. He has issued a directive that China should overtake India in the next five years. While this may not happen, the fact is that they are the single largest competitor for us in the software arena. 

They have the potential to overtake us. For all you know, top Indian software companies will open development centres in China in the next three years or even earlier.The Chinese edge is mainly due to 'low costs' and this is why they are world leaders in toys, textiles, garments etc, and 'software' is one more industry where they can leverage on low costs.